New Zealand`s trade surplus widens

The trade balance produced a surplus of 631 million in March, up from February`s 83 million.

The key points of the trade report include:

• Quarterly exports fall 0.6 percent 
• Quarterly imports fall 3.3 percent  
• Trade deficit in the March 2015 quarter 
• Monthly exports fall 2.0 percent 
• Monthly imports rise 4.1 percent 
• Trade surplus in March 2015 of $631 million 
• Exchange rate movements 

UK Q1 prelim GDP slows down to 0.3%

The UK economy slowed down in the first quarter, as indicated in the preliminary GDP. The economy only grew at 0.3%.

The key points of the report include: 

• Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 compared with growth of 0.6% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014.

• Output increased in services by 0.5% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015. The other 3 main industrial groupings within the economy decreased, with construction falling by 1.6%, production by 0.1% and agriculture by 0.2%.

• GDP was 2.4% higher in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

• In Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, GDP was estimated to have been 4.0% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. From the peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to the trough in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009, the economy shrank by 6.0%.

• The preliminary estimate of GDP is produced using the output approach to measuring GDP. At this stage, data content is less than half of the total required for the final output estimate. The estimate is subject to revision as more data become available, but these revisions are typically small between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP.

• All figures in this release are seasonally adjusted.

The full report can be found here. 

In the money call warrants (Week 18)

As part of my once a month free analysis of in the money call warrants, here is the list of call warrants trading at a discount:

No	Call warrant	Discount rate (%)
1	Cliq WA	5.3
2	Crest Builder WB	4.2
3	IHH CV	7.6
4	Malaysian Building Society WA	4.8
5	Maxco CM	2.5
6	N2N WA *	4.8
7	Maybulk CT	4.1
8	Sunway C4	8
9	Thong Guan WA	7.3
10	YTL CM	6.1

Note that the N2N WA is an American styled call warrant which means it can be converted on any date up to expiry. The trading idea is to buy the warrant, convert to the money share and either collect the difference between acquisition cost and market value or hold it for more capital gains. 

Durable good orders fall

Core durable good orders fell for the seventh straight month according to Bloomberg. March recorded a contraction of 0,2%.

One of the contributors to this figure is the drop in bookings of military capital goods.

Germany`s business climate at a 10 month high

Business confidence in Germany is at a 10 month high. The IFO business climate recorded a level of 108.7 compared to March`s 107.9.

Australian unemployment rate in March drops to 6.1%

The employment change increased by 37.7 thousand new jobs being created in March. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 6.1% from 6.2% recorded in February.

The full labour report can be found here. 

GDT: -3.6%

The GDT price index, the leading indicator for dairy prices in New Zealand contracted by 3.6%.

ECB`s press conference was delayed

Mario Draghi was attacked by a random woman who threw confetti at him during the press conference. The minimum bid rate remained at 0.5%.

The ECB webcast can be streamed here.

China`s economy slows down to where it needs to be

China`s GDP slowed down to 7.0%, in the last quarter, making it the slowest growth since 2009. Industrial production dropped to 5.6% compared to the prior period`s growth of 6.8%.

Bloomberg has a write up for this.

Julian Suresh Caniah has been buying up Cliq

Julian Suresh Caniah, a director of Cliq Bhd has been buying up the company`s shares.

Over the last two weeks, he has purchased 1.1 million shares bringing his ownership to a total of 22.5 million shares. This represents a 3.57% direct interest in the company.

Cliq is artificially pushed down

Both the mother share and WA call warrant have been pushed down, exactly at 4.50.00 pm. Why this particular timing is significant is that after 4.50.00 pm, traders can only buy or sell at the last done price. Obviously none of the current warrant holders would sell their in the money warrants at this price.

Notice how precise the timing was to push down the mother share.

The same can be seen in the WA call warrant.

Since it was done precisely at 4.50.00 pm, buyers could not offer more than RM 0.125 while sellers will not release their warrants at this price.

PPI missed estimates

Producer prices increased in March as the index recorded a growth of 0.2% but it missed the target rate of 0.3%.

The PPI report can be found here.

Retail sales rebound less than predictions

Retail and core retail sales were up in March but the growth rate fell below what economists were expecting. Retail sales grew by 0.9%, up from -0.5% in February while core retail sales accelerated to 0.4% from 0.0% in the prior period.

Bloomberg has a report on this. 

UK`s inflation unchanged at 0%

The consumer prices index (CPI) remained unchanged in the year to March, that is a rate of 0.0%, the same as February.

The drop in clothing and gas prices produced the largest downward movement to the inflation rate, However, these were offset by the rise in fuel prices and a variety of small products like food.

The full inflation report can be found here.

New Zealand`s growth moderates to a more sustainable level

That was the headline for the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research`s  (NZIER) business confidence report.

The full report can be found here.

China`s trade balance was just lousy

China posted a trade balance surplus of just 3.5 billion in March, a tiny fraction compared to the surplus of 60.6 billion in February.

As quoted on CNBC, March imports fell by 12.7%, higher than the expected 10% drop

Genting C20 is trading at a discount of 4.7%

Genting C20 is in the money but is has been stubborn to match. It has not moved all day up to now. 

The mother share has fallen by 10 cents but the C20 call warrant has not moved yet. Usually, a movement in the price of the mother share would trigger an even more drastic change in its warrant/s percentage wise.

Here is a snapshot of the term sheet. 

As of this post, the C20 call warrant is trading at a discount of 4.7%. 

Hovid WB is still trading at a discount

This is a follow up to my post on Hovid on March 30th. The WB call warrant has since appreciated by 17.6% while the mother share is up by 12.5%.

The strike price for this warrant is RM 0.18 with an exercise ratio of 1:1, making being priced at a discount of 3%.

China`s inflation hold steady in March

The consumer price inflation (CPI), the leading indicator for inflation in China held steady in March at 1.4%.

CNBC has a good write up on this.

Unemployment claims up slightly

The weekly unemployment claims rose to 281 thousand, slightly worse than last week`s 267 thousand.

BoE: No changes

The Bank of England (BoE) maintained the official bank rate at 0.5% and asset purchase facility at 375 billon.

More gains for Cliq WA

Following my post yesterday on this particular call warrant, it went up again today.

When the mother share appreciates...

Cliq appreciated by the slighted bit today

And since a warrant is related to its mother share, guess what? The WA call warrant jumped by 8.33% today.

This appreciated was much expected based on my analysis on Monday for my group members before trading started. 

Solid growth in UK`s service sector

The purchasing managers index (PMI) for services in the UK showed a very solid growth in the industry. It was at a level of 58.9 in March, compared to February`s 56.7.

The strong first quarter GDP was said to have helped the industry to reach this level of growth, not seen since August 2014. The negligible rise in charges highlights the lack of inflation.

The full report can be found here. 

Monthly RBA: Nothing new

The official cash rate was kept at 2.25% while the Reserve Bank of Australia`s (RBA) statement was rather brief. This is pretty much expected as there cannot be any more new policy after the rate cut in February.

The full statement can be found here. 

Australian retail spending up after February`s rate cut

Retail sales in March jumped to 0.7% from 0.5% in February. It was largely said that the accelerated growth was due to the Reserve Bank of Australia`s decision to cut rates in February.

The full report can be obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

ISM: Non manufacturing grew for the 62 consecutive month

The ISM non-manufacturing index indicated a growth for the 62nd consecutive month. The index was 56.5, a tiny drop from last month`s 56.9. Any level above 50.0 indicates an expansion in the industry.

Please take note that this is not the official government figure. The ISM report can be found here.

Spanish unemployment drops by 60 thousand

Registered unemployment fell by 60.2 thousand in Spain.

The full report can be found here, but it is in Spanish.

Jobs data was terrible, unemployment rate remained the same

Only 126 thousand new jobs were created in March compared to the estimated 245 thousand. This is the lowest level since December 2013. Bloomberg mentions that "hiring bloom fizzles as companies adjust to slower growth".

The unemployment rate held steady at 5.5% while the participation rate fell to 62.7%. The employment report can be found here. 

9 week low for unemployment claims

The weekly unemployment claims this week fell to 268 thousand claims, a record low in 9 weeks.

US trade balance deficit falls

The trade balance deficit in February fell to $35.4 billion compared to the prior period`s $42.7 billion.

The trade balance report can be found here. The full report is a nightmare to read as it looks like it was typed from an old school typewriter.

UK construction growth slows down in March

Construction growth in the UK slowed down, indicated through the construction PMI. The index in March was at a level of 57.8, lower than February`s 60.1. Still, in spite of the drop, business confidence level is at the highest level in 9 years.

The report can be found here.

Australian trade balance

Australia recorded a trade balance deficit of 1.25 billion in February, an increase of 235 million from January.

The trade balance report can be obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Bursa Index Q1 recap

It has been a positive first quarter for Bursa. Historical data was obtained from Yahoo Finance.