NAB: Low business confidence in Australia

Once again the NAB business confidence level hovered at one of the lowest points since the mid-2013 elections.

A cut in bank rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected by some traders.

The Australian Business Review has a write up on the business confidence today.

OPEC`s February report

Regarding oil supply:

" Non-OPEC oil supply for 2014 was revised up by 20 tb/d to 56.23 mb/d. The estimated growth was also revised up by 10 tb/d to 1.99 mb/d over the previous Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). This revision – mostly driven by upward 4Q14 revisions in the OECD, Brazil, Kazakhstan and China – was partially offset by downward revisions for Azerbaijan, Other Asia Pacific, Australia and Mexico. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2015 is projected to grow by 0.85 mb/d, mostly in the 1H15, down by 0.42 mb/d from the previous assessment, to average 57.09 mb/d, mainly due to announced capital expenditures (capex) cuts for 2015 on the part of international oil companies, as well as a decline in the number of active drilling rigs in the US and Canada, geopolitics and a heavy annual decline in Russian brownfields."

The full OPEC report can be found here.

Speech by Governor Stevens

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens gave a speech earlier today in Sydney during a luncheon. This was somewhat an informal speech and the full text can be found here.

Key indicators this week (Week 7)

Sunday
- China`s trade balance

Monday
- RBA Governor Stevens speaks

Tuesday 
- NAB business confidence
- Chinese CPI
- UK manufacturing production

Wednesday 
- Eurogroup meeting

Thursday 
- Australian employment change
- Australian unemployment rate
- BOE Governor Carney speaks
- BOE inflation report
- US core retail sales
- US retail sales
- US weekly unemployment claims

Friday 
- RBA Governor Stevens speaks
- Prelim UoM consumer sentiment

Surplus in China

China posted a huge surplus of 60.0 billion, exceeding December`s 49.6 billion. This is due to the fall in imports thanks to the drop in commodity prices.

Non-farm employment and unemployment rate rise

Unlike the ADP figures on Wednesday, the actual non-farm employment change saw 257 thousand new jobs being created in January, beating the forecasted 236 thousand. This is still short of December`s solid 329 thousand.

In terms of the unemployment rate, January saw a slight climb to 5.7%, missing estimates and the prior period`s 5.6%.

The employment situation report in the US can be found here.

Swiss foreign reserves up

The Swiss foreign currency reserves increased to 498.4 billion in January, up from 495.1 billion. This increase is said to be due to the Swiss National Bank`s (SNB) earlier decision in appreciating the CHF. The SNB however has declined to comment regarding the decision to increase the CHF`s value.

RBA monetary policy statement

The RBA monetary policy statement can be found here. I`ll summarize it when I`m back to my usual health.

Economic updates 30/1 to 5/2

I was sick earlier this week and thus did not update this journal. Instead of backtracking all the updates per post or skipping them all together, I`ll combine all of them this in one post.

Friday (30/1)
US advanced GDP for the forth quarter recorded a 2.6% growth.

Sunday (1/2)
China`s manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.8 vs estimated 50.3 and prior period`s 50.1.

Monday (2/2)
HSBC final manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 vs estimated 49.7 and prior period`s 49.8.
UK manufacturing PMI accelerated to 53.0 vs estimated 52.9 and prior period`s 52.7.
ISM manufacturing PMI contracted slightly to 53.5 vs estimated 54.9 and prior period`s 55.5.

Tuesday (3/2)
Australian building approvals dropped to -3.3% vs estimated -4.8% and prior period`s 7.7%.
Australian trade balance at -0.44 billion vs estimated -0.85 billion and prior period`s -1,02 billion.
Cash rate down to 2.25% vs estimated 2.5% and prior period`s 2.5%.
RBA rate statement.
Spanish employment changed improved to 78.0k vs estimated 83.4k and prior period`s -64.4k.
UK construction PMI grew to 59.1 vs estimated 56.1 and prior period`s 57.6.
GDP price index accelerated to 9.6% vs prior period`s 1.0%.

Wednesday (4/2)
New Zealand employment change improved to 1.2% vs estimated 0.8% and prior period`s 0.9%.
New Zealand unemployment rate at 5.7% vs estimated 5.3% and prior period`s 5.4%.
RBNZ Governor Wheeler`s speech.
UK services PMI increased to 57.2 vs estimated 56.6 and prior period`s 55.8.
ADP non-farm employment change dropped to 213k vs estimated 224k and prior period`s 253k.
ISM non-manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 56.7 vs estimated 56.6 and prior period`s 56.2.

Thursday (5/2)
Australian retail sales dropped to 0.2% vs estimated 0.3% and prior period`s 0.1%/
UK official bank rate unchanged at 0.5%.
US trade balance deficit widened to 46.8 billion vs estimated 38.2 billion and prior period`s 39.8 billion.
US unemployment claims 278k vs estimated 287k and last week`s 267k.

Australian housing market is booming

Business Insider termed the housing market as on fire in Australia. New building approvals accelerated by 7.9%, a major leap from last month`s -2.8%.

The article also warns about an imbalance in the economy as the only growth engine is fueled by the housing market.

The full report for the building approvals in January can be found here.