No one expected it, with the final GDP for the first quarter ending at -2.9%, an expansion of 4% in the economy is a pleasant surprise. This shall send pairs like EUR/USD into new lows.
The ADP non-farm employment change 15 minutes before the GDP was disappointing but this did not cause EUR/USD to rise and traders were expecting a major movement only after the GDP.
I went in long for USD/CHF and USD/JPY. EUR/USD felt a bit low for me so I decided to skip this pair.
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Monday, July 21, 2014
Scalping GBP/USD
I have been scalping GBP/JPY today, entries were made purely by value investing. Mr Clarence hypothesised that when USD is strong, all currencies will weaken against it except the Yen. So far, this has turned out to be true for the last two trading days. More testing is needed to confirm this.
I have closed my EUR/USD longs yesterday as I feared this pair would test the 1.349 support again. However, I did not manage to reenter when it bounced.
I have closed my EUR/USD longs yesterday as I feared this pair would test the 1.349 support again. However, I did not manage to reenter when it bounced.
Friday, July 18, 2014
Prelim UoM consumer sentiment drops
My USD/JPY longs are left open. The preliminary UoM consumer sentiment ended up lower than both estimates and prior period but this has surprisingly left the USD/JPY pair sideways. A minimal dip happened.
The UoM consumer sentiment is a financial confidence index by the University of Michigan. A higher figure is better for the USD.
The UoM consumer sentiment is a financial confidence index by the University of Michigan. A higher figure is better for the USD.
Thursday, July 17, 2014
Weekly unemployment claims
It is Thursday, this means it is unemployment claims day. The claims fell by 3000 in comparison to last week and bettered expectations by 8000 new jobs.
Nothing that interesting in the movement of the USD yet. The recent downsizing from Microsoft has not taken into effect yet, and this shall definitely cause the jobs data to look bad.
Broker did maintenance during unemployment claims
The pictures show how my forex broker conveniently scheduled its maintenance when an important economic data was out.
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
All is well with China`s GDP
I entered long for AUD/USD with China`s recent GDP figures. The actual data beat forecast and previous period by 0.1%.
In addition to the expansion of the economy, industrial production shared the same note.
I closed my AUD/USD within a day with some gains. It was a regrettable decision as this pair continued to rise after I closed. Resistance broke, continuing the bull run for the AUD.
In addition to the expansion of the economy, industrial production shared the same note.
I closed my AUD/USD within a day with some gains. It was a regrettable decision as this pair continued to rise after I closed. Resistance broke, continuing the bull run for the AUD.
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Yellen testifies
Today has been a very busy day in financial markets. Janet Yellen`s testimony does not move the markets as much as her press conferences do but markets are still interested.
Mr Clarence remarked that "Yellen has a habit for making the USD weak."
The testimony basically was about her mentioning that further easing is required to strengthen the economy. The low wages "is a significant slack in the labour markets."
These are all bad news for the USD. More easing means more money pumped into the economy, causing the value to fall.
She also highlighted that the jobless rate is an all time low in six year. I do have my doubts on this figure and as this post is being written, Microsoft is reducing its workforce.
A more detailed coverage on her testimony can be found on bloomberg.
Mr Clarence remarked that "Yellen has a habit for making the USD weak."
The testimony basically was about her mentioning that further easing is required to strengthen the economy. The low wages "is a significant slack in the labour markets."
These are all bad news for the USD. More easing means more money pumped into the economy, causing the value to fall.
She also highlighted that the jobless rate is an all time low in six year. I do have my doubts on this figure and as this post is being written, Microsoft is reducing its workforce.
A more detailed coverage on her testimony can be found on bloomberg.
A huge jump in UK CPI
Consumer price index (CPI) is the leading indicator for inflation in an economy. UK inflation jumps by a stunning margin to 1.9% for June. This is in comparison to May`s rate of 1.5% and a forecast of 1.6%. Clearly the prudent economists did not expect such a big hike.
This caused the GBP to appreciate against other currencies, due to investor sentiments. Purchasing power parity is not followed here.
This caused the GBP to appreciate against other currencies, due to investor sentiments. Purchasing power parity is not followed here.
Gains from positions carried over
I closed my long positions in GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY with a pretty profit. These positions were carried over from days ago.
A major factor why GBP looked so strong was that the CPI figures beat the estimates and previous figures by a huge margin. It shot up 40-50 pips instantly.
A major factor why GBP looked so strong was that the CPI figures beat the estimates and previous figures by a huge margin. It shot up 40-50 pips instantly.
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Misleading article about the Ringgit appreciation
I found this in StarBiz today. The question is, which currency didn't appreciate against the dollar after the US final GDP figures were announced, the worst contraction since 2009? OPR hike has been mentioned since May. A very misleading article.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)