Friday, September 19, 2014

Intrinsic yen value

In my earlier post on the continued easing by the BoJ, I shall compute the intrinsic value of the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs taking into account the effect of the additional monetary base.

This shall include a number of assumptions, at which the starting figure is based on their values on September 4th and that the total monetary base used shall be the average amount outstanding.

Japan`s monetary base can be obtained from BoJ`s website.

























It can be seen above that the average amounts outstanding as at August 2014 is 2 431 161 x 100 million.

The additional yen pumped into the system annually, 50 billion shall be compared in terms of a percentage to the monetary base. This gives approximately 2.057%.
[ (5 x 10^10 / 2.431161 x 10^17) x 100%]

One yen spot contract now should be worth 97.943% of the original contract prior to the BoJ announcement.

The new intrinsic quotes for USD/JPY and GBP/JPY should be 107.169 and 176.107.

These values do not include the external influence of the strengths of the dollar and pound nor the fundamental weakness in the yen but it is a good start to see where the direction of the yen is heading.

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