Ahead of the official figures for the revised GDP, it is no surprise that a bearish tone is expected. Primarily, the advanced third quarter GDP showed a slow down in growth compared to the second quarter.
Based on economic data in this month alone here are some points for a solid GDP data:
- Manufacturing expanded
- Retail sales up
- CPI accelerated
- Wage increase
As for a weak GDP figure:
- Bank of England (BoE) lowering forecast for growth and inflation
- Unemployment benefits drop less than expected
- Slack in the economy
- Services at a 17 month low
- Construction industry at a 5 month low
- Weak trade balance
Arguments for a weak GDP figure arguably carry more weight than those for a solid one.
This site shows another analysis on the slowdown of the UK economy. It predicts that there will be no change to the previous figure.
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